Archive for the ‘Trade Ideas’ Category

Hey SEC, why not publish daily short interest?

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

From NASDAQ.com :NASDAQ member firms are required to report their short positions as of settlement on (1) the 15th of each month, or the preceding business day if the 15th is not a business day, and (2) as of settlement on the last business day of the month.* The reports must be filed by the second business day after the reporting settlement date. FINRA compiles the short interest data and provides it for publication on the 8th business day after the reporting settlement date.

I need to wait two weeks in order to see the short interest for the first two weeks of the month. Instead of banning shorting, why not publish daily interest for individual securities sooner? Even weekly short interest would be helpful! Someone help me understand why this is not possible or feasible. Please SEC provide more transparency without intervening.

Publication Schedule for 2008 - nasdaqtrader.com

US taking one from the Karachi Stock Exchange playbook

Saturday, September 20th, 2008

From Notable Calls:

An extreme example comes from Pakistan where the local SEC responded to a stock slump last month by banning short selling and limiting daily price declines to 1% while allowing them to rise by 10%. The initial reaction was a massive 8.6% one day rally followed by 15 straight days of slumping prices amid extremely low turnover, the worst such period for that market in several years. As rioting investors stormed the Karachi Stock Exchange last week, the rules were rescinded.”

Trade Ideas:

Long Jan 09 $90 SKF Calls

Long Oct 08 and Dec 08 SDS Calls

Lehman Brothers Short Interest at all time high

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

From the WSJ: “Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is close to raising more than $5 billion of fresh capital from an array of investors including the New Jersey Division of Investment, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The move comes as the firm is set to report a second-quarter loss of more than $2 billion, this person said. Until recently, most analysts who follow Lehman have been predicting a loss of about $300 million.

On Sunday afternoon, the firm was still pulling together final details of the capital raising, which could be announced Monday or Tuesday. Additional capital raisings are sure to follow for other banks.”

ProShares UltraShort Financials: #1 Bank Deleveraging Play

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

Check out the institutions piling in to make leveraged bets against the financials. Phillip Falcone, who heads the $20 billion Harbinger Capital Partners Ltd., has racked up a 29 percent return for his main Harbinger Capital Partners Fund, through May currently holds the largest position with over $600M short.

SFK was up close to 10% on last Friday. Given the uncertainty with Lehman’s upcoming earnings and talk about all the big banks deleveraging their assets, SFK may be the “Paulson and Co. subprime” bet of 2008.

ProShares Trust (SKF) Detailed Institutional Holdings - nasdaq.com

Trade Idea: Sears Earnings Release Date and Bill Ackman

Friday, November 16th, 2007

According to Pershing Square Capital Management 13-F, Bill Ackman has accumulated a 5 million share stake in Sears Holdings. He is currently SHLD’s fourth largest institutional holder. I imagine Ackman wouldn’t make such a significant bet on SHLD if he didn’t see a catalyst.

Bill Ackman is scheduled to present at the Value Investing Congress (agenda link) on November 28th, 2007. Will Bill announce his intention and vision in buying into SHLD? Will he agitate Sears to sell underperforming stores to Target? (He owns a large stake in Target as well) Will he mention the Sears Canada takeover he was involved in?

The date of the Value Investing Congress is significant because the following morning Sears Holdings will release Q3 earnings. Consider SHLD released Q3 earnings last year on 11-16-2006, investors will be curious to see if there is any significance to the two week delay. Will SHLD announce an acquisition? A majority position by ESL? Will they announce additional income and buyback programs from the sales of the Sears Canada HQ? Considering the 100% institutional ownership in SHLD, all eye will be on Lampert.

Trades: AKAM

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

I sold the two AKAM NOV 35 calls contracts today at $4.00. Profit of $230.

I bought two AKAM OCT 35.00 calls at $3.20.

Upcoming Week: GM UAW Contract Trade

Saturday, September 22nd, 2007

Ever since 9/13 there has been quite a bit of accumulation in GM ahead of union contract deal.. GM is pushing to approve a new contract where it shifts health liabilities to the unions which may result in an additional 3-4 point run-up in GM. If we continue to see above strong volume in anticipation of a contract deal, I may take a position ahead of the news. I will put in a tight stop in case GM is unable to pull of the union run health care fund.